20m long path?

Had an unexpected spot from VK6XT on 20m late this afternoon:

2014-12-27 23:26 KB9AMG 14.097140 -22 0 EN52tx 5 VK6XT OF86td 17546 286

other stations heard by VK6XT at the same time:

2014-12-27 23:26 K4COD 14.097164 0 0 EM73sc 2 VK6XT OF86td 17969 262
2014-12-27 23:26 K4RCG 14.097148 -16 0 FM08xl 2 VK6XT OF86td 18520 285
2014-12-27 23:26 KE7TYT 14.097112 -23 0 DN40bv 5 VK6XT OF86td 15631 264
2014-12-27 23:26 HB9CZF 14.097079 -23 0 JN47ch 1 VK6XT OF86td 14081 103
2014-12-27 23:26 VE3PLE 14.097022 -12 1 FN25bg 5 VK6XT OF86td 18302 313

I used the voacap.com website to calculate the short/long path probabilities during the 2300z hour on 20m with the default settings (100W dipole CW)

........................ short path ... long path

K4COD EM73sc ...... 0 % ....... 44 % ... 22086 km
K4RCG FM08xl ....... 0 % ....... 57 % ... 21534 km
KE7TYT DN40bv .... 0 % ....... 17 % ... 24427 km
HB9CZF JN47ch ... 41 % ....... 0 %
VE3PLE FN25bg .... 0 % ....... 50 % ... 21753 km
KB9AMG EN52tx .... 0 % ....... 38 % ... 22509 km

From my location the highest probability of long-path (65%) on 20m during 2300z was near the antipodal point, about 2500km wsw of perth. This area was just large enough to cover south-western australia.